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| Make Your Vote Count |
At Intrade they take into account many polls, and since people put actual money down for their bets, the site is supposed to give the most accurate picture of expected election results. The odds change with conditions, so it's constantly updating. You can see other things people are betting on there too--it's rather amazing.
I don't particularly like the idea of betting on election results, but it is interesting to see what they are predicting. An article at the New York Times give more details on how it all works and how accurate they think it is. They call it the "virtues and vices" of election betting. That about sums it up.
My bet is on going to the polls and casting your vote. I just wish we didn't have the electoral college. If your state is already going strongly for one candidate, your vote doesn't really count no matter who you vote for. It's time for the electoral college to go, in my opinion. It's a relic of times past and no longer relevant in our information society. After all, we used to say, "One man; one vote" in this country. I'd like to see each vote really count.
By the way, the New York Times article says it could be a better bet to invest in stocks that would likely do well under the administration you think will win. That takes more time to investigate however. No matter what you are betting on (figuratively speaking) these days, I hope you diversify!
We have a granddaughter due to be born around election day, so we'll be celebrating no matter who wins. Lots of excitement. I'm betting that the love of her family will pay dividends her whole life through.
UPDATE, 11/27/2012:
Intrade has run afoul of regulations or laws in the US, so it's suspending participation for US citizens. Interesting that this happens after the election. Here's the story at the Washington Post.
Totally agree with your opinion on the electoral college. Candidates focus solely on swing states completely ignoring others.
ReplyDeleteMC, it would change campaigning with the electoral college gone. Maybe states with low population wouldn't see the candidates much, but at least everyone's vote would count equally.
DeleteWow I had no idea that people bet on elections. That seems pretty crazy! But people do love to gamble on everything so I guess it makes sense. And you're absolutely right about the electoral college. It's not right to feel like your vote doesn't matter!
ReplyDeleteGillian, I agree it's pretty crazy. I suppose people can place bets on the election at Las Vegas too. Each vote should count equally, in my opinion. Thanks for stopping by!
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